White British people could be a minority in the UK within three decades, ministers warned

White British people could be a minority in the UK within three decades, a campaigner has warned.

Lord Green of Deddington warned public services could be overwhelmed if net migration continues to surge at 400,000 and Channel crossings continue.

Lord Green, who founded the think-tank Migration Watch, said Labour's plans to reduce net migration would achieve "virtually nothing".

Speaking in the second reading debate into the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill in the Lords on Monday, Lord Green said: "These [migration] numbers also point to the prospect that within the foreseeable future, the white British will become a minority in their own country. It's already the case that all of our population increase is as a result of immigration."

He cited falling birth rates being a problem, with the latest statistics from 2023 showing the lowest number of births in England and Wales since 1977.

The fertility rate in the two nations is at 1.44 children per woman, the lowest since records began in 1938, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

He continued: "The major factor by far is now net migration. Even if it is held at the current 430,000 a year, we can expect the white majority, the white British majority to become a minority in the UK in about 30 years from now."

The Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill aims to introduce new offences and counter terror-style powers to tackle people smugglers bringing migrants across the English Channel.

People who sell and handle boat parts suspected of being used in migrant Channel crossings could face up to 14 years in prison and the Government wants to make it an offence to endanger another life during sea crossings to the UK.

Nearly 37,000 people crossed the Channel in small boats in 2024, according to the Home Office. This was lower than the peak in 2022 when 45,755 arrived.

So far this year 14,812 have arrived on British shores, including more than 1,000 on Saturday.

Home Secretary Yvette Cooper confirmed migrants face up to five years in prison if they refuse to be rescued in the Channel by the French authorities.

The Home Secretary said a new offence will be created to target those endangering another life during a small boat crossing.

This means anyone fighting with French police on the beaches, holding children over the edge of a small boat or "rushing" vessels as they try to launch could all be prosecuted, with a maximum penalty of five years behind bars.

This move is believed to have been significant in convincing the French to intercept boats in the water, it is understood.

Criminals caught selling or handling small boat parts, such as engines or lifejackets, could also be jailed for up to 14 years as the Home Office will make it "illegal to supply or handle items suspected of being for use by organised crime groups".

Officials believe they could even extradite criminals operating in countries such as Turkey and prosecute them under this new law.

Ms Cooper has outlined Labour's plan to end the Channel migrant crisis, insisting giving Border Force counter-terrorism-style powers will allow the UK to "identify, disrupt and smash people smuggling gangs" faster.

Sir Keir, who said the country risks becoming an "island of strangers" without better integration, said he wanted net migration to have fallen "significantly" by the next general election - but refused to set a target number.

Measures in Labour's plan, dubbed "Restoring control over the immigration system", included:

- Increasing the threshold for the Skilled Worker Visa to graduate-level roles.

- Revoking visas for foreign thugs, shoplifters and sex offenders as the number of offenders eligible for deportation is expanded.

- Reforming citizenship rules by making migrants wait 10 years rather than five to apply for indefinite leave to remain, although workers who significantly contribute to society, such as nurses, doctors and engineers, could be fast-tracked.

- Requiring a higher standard of English across all immigration routes, including, for the first time, adult dependents required to display a basic understanding of the language.

- Closing the social care visa to foreign workers, amid fears it is being abused as a back door route into the UK.

The Home Office has predicted its changes will lead to 100,000 fewer people coming to the UK, meaning net migration could settle at around 240,000-250,000 by the end of this Parliament in 2029.

Lord Green said: "They will not bring the scale of net migration down to a level which is acceptable to the public. Indeed, this Bill barely scratches the surface of the massive problems that our country now faces as a result of the enormous increase in immigration over recent years."

He continued: "These massive numbers are completely without precedent in our history, and will have very serious consequences for public services such as health and education, as well as demand for housing."

The peer said Sir Keir Starmer's speech where he said the UK could become an "island of strangers" without clear immigration rules, was supported by the public at large. "The public feel in their bones that he was right," he said.

He added: "We now need serious consideration of the policies required to put the brakes on this process. These include the political courage to set a clear target for net migration backed up by specific measures. I regret to conclude that the Bill before us today will achieve virtually nothing of the kind now needed."