On April 2, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced his "Liberation Day" tariffs in a Rose Garden address, ushering in a seismic shift in global trade dynamics. The policy imposes a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports starting April 5, with additional "reciprocal tariffs" targeting specific countries—ranging up to 49%—set to begin April 9.
Aimed at reducing America’s trade deficit and boosting domestic production, the tariffs penalize nations deemed to have unfair trade practices. While Trump hailed the move as a step toward making America "wealthy again," its global repercussions have sparked fierce debate. Below is an analysis of the winning and losing countries from this policy, with a focus on their economic stakes, strategic responses, and broader implications.
India: A mixed bag
Winners
Mexico and Canada
Canada and Mexico are unlikely to feel much immediate impact from Trump’s latest round of tariffs. Both countries were effectively carved out of the new measures, as they’ve already been targeted in earlier actions related to drug trafficking and immigration concerns.
"Goods from Canada and Mexico that are not covered by a North American free trade agreement already face 25% tariffs that Trump has tied to drug trafficking and unauthorized migration; those will remain in place and America’s two largest trading partners will not be subject to the new tariff regime as long as the separate tariffs are in effect," a Bloomberg report said.
United Kingdom
The UK, hit with a 10% tariff, could turn this into an opportunity. Post-Brexit, it has sought closer US ties, and its $65 billion in exports—focused on machinery and pharmaceuticals—may avoid the heaviest scrutiny. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has expressed willingness to deepen trade talks, potentially securing favorable terms. If the UK pivots from EU reliance to a US-centric trade strategy, it could gain a competitive edge over European rivals facing steeper tariffs.
Brazil
Brazil, with a 10% tariff, might also benefit if it capitalizes on its agricultural exports like soybeans and beef, which face less direct competition from US producers. Its $35 billion trade with the US could grow if it positions itself as a reliable partner amid disruptions elsewhere. Strategic diplomacy could see Brazil emerge as a winner in the Western Hemisphere.
Losers
China
China is the policy’s biggest loser, slapped with a 54% total tariff (34% new plus 20% existing) on its $439 billion in US exports. From electronics to apparel, Chinese goods will become prohibitively expensive, threatening a market that accounts for 17% of its total exports. Beijing has vowed retaliation—potentially targeting US agricultural giants like ADM and Cargill—raising the specter of a renewed trade war. With its economy already strained by a property crisis, China faces a steep economic hit, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 1.5% GDP growth drop in 2025 if tariffs persist.
European Union
The EU, facing a 20% tariff on its $576 billion in exports to the US, is another major casualty. Germany’s auto industry (BMW, Volkswagen) and France’s luxury goods sector (LVMH) will see costs soar, eroding competitiveness. EU chief Ursula von der Leyen called it a "major blow," and retaliatory measures—like duties on US whiskey and Harley-Davidson—are under discussion. With intra-EU divisions hampering a unified response, the bloc risks losing significant market share, especially if U.S. allies like the UK negotiate better deals.
Japan
Japan’s 24% tariff threatens its $142 billion export market, dominated by autos and machinery. Toyota and Honda, which rely on US sales for 30% of their global revenue, face a double hit: higher import costs and potential consumer backlash. Tokyo has protested, but its limited leverage—given US security ties—may force compliance or costly production shifts. Analysts predict a 0.8% GDP decline if exports drop as expected.
Southeast Asian nations
Smaller Asean economies like Cambodia (49%), Vietnam (46%), and Laos (48%) are among the hardest hit. These countries, key players in apparel and electronics supply chains, export $12 billion, $112 billion, and $1.5 billion respectively to the US. The steep tariffs could devastate their export-driven growth, with Cambodia’s garment sector—90% of its exports—facing collapse. Vietnam, a recent beneficiary of China’s trade woes, may see its diversification gains reversed, while Laos lacks the clout to negotiate relief.
Taiwan
Taiwan’s 32% tariff imperils its $95 billion export market, particularly semiconductors. As home to TSMC, the world’s top chipmaker, Taiwan supplies 92% of advanced US chips. While semiconductors dodged direct tariffs for now, the broader levy raises costs for downstream products, risking supply chain chaos. Escalating US-China tensions could further isolate Taiwan, making it a geopolitical and economic loser.
Broader implications for countries
Strategic winners
Countries that win will likely do so through agility and diplomacy. India and the UK could exploit their non-aligned or pro-US stances to secure exemptions, while Mexico and Canada might lean on regional ties. These nations could see export growth or stability if they pivot supply chains to meet US demands, potentially reshaping global trade alliances. Brazil’s agricultural leverage could similarly elevate its status in the Americas.
Economic losers
The losers—China, the EU, Japan, and Southeast Asia—face immediate export declines and long-term uncertainty. Retaliation risks a global trade war, with the World Trade Organization estimating a 2.5% drop in world trade volume by 2026 if escalation continues. Smaller nations like Cambodia and Laos may struggle to recover, while giants like China and the EU could see domestic unrest if economic pain deepens. Taiwan’s semiconductor role adds a strategic layer, potentially destabilizing tech markets worldwide.
Penguin in the crosshairs
Trump has never said whether he prefers Marvel or DC, but based on his upbringing, one would assume his favourite caped crusader is Batman — a super rich man who gets his jollies beating up weird criminals. And Trump appears to share Bruce Wayne’s disdain for the Penguin, judging by his Liberation Day announcements, where he declared that he would be imposing 10% tariffs on the denizens of Heard Island and McDonald Islands — an uninhabited extension of Australia, home mostly to penguins and seals. This led to a host of penguin-themed jokes, often coupled with memes from the Madagascar franchise. Perhaps Donald thought that “McDonald” was a reference to his favourite fast-food franchise. Either way, it’s evident that no one — man, beast, nor bird — is safe from MAGA’s massive “reciprocal tariffs.”
(With inputs from agencies)
Aimed at reducing America’s trade deficit and boosting domestic production, the tariffs penalize nations deemed to have unfair trade practices. While Trump hailed the move as a step toward making America "wealthy again," its global repercussions have sparked fierce debate. Below is an analysis of the winning and losing countries from this policy, with a focus on their economic stakes, strategic responses, and broader implications.
India: A mixed bag
- India said on Thursday it is "examining the implications" of the broad US tariff hike and is also looking at "opportunities" created by the fact that rival exporters may be more affected by the move announced by President Donald Trump.
- During the announcement at the White House, Trump referred to Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a "great friend" but claimed he had not been "treating us right." While an initial White House document listed India's tariffs at 26 percent, a later annex cited by India showed the rate at 27 percent. "Discussions are ongoing between Indian and US trade teams for the expeditious conclusion of a mutually beneficial, multi-sectoral bilateral trade agreement," the commerce ministry statement said. "It is a mixed bag and not a setback for India," a commerce ministry official told PTI.
- The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) acknowledged that the tariffs create challenges for Indian exporters but said India is still better positioned than many of its global competitors.
- According to a Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) report, India stands out as a potential winner if it plays its cards right. The GRTI report said the US’s protectionist tariffs might actually open up opportunities for India through shifts in global supply chains. But to take full advantage, India needs to improve ease of doing business, invest in logistics and infrastructure, and ensure policy stability, it added.
Winners
Mexico and Canada
Canada and Mexico are unlikely to feel much immediate impact from Trump’s latest round of tariffs. Both countries were effectively carved out of the new measures, as they’ve already been targeted in earlier actions related to drug trafficking and immigration concerns.
"Goods from Canada and Mexico that are not covered by a North American free trade agreement already face 25% tariffs that Trump has tied to drug trafficking and unauthorized migration; those will remain in place and America’s two largest trading partners will not be subject to the new tariff regime as long as the separate tariffs are in effect," a Bloomberg report said.
United Kingdom
The UK, hit with a 10% tariff, could turn this into an opportunity. Post-Brexit, it has sought closer US ties, and its $65 billion in exports—focused on machinery and pharmaceuticals—may avoid the heaviest scrutiny. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has expressed willingness to deepen trade talks, potentially securing favorable terms. If the UK pivots from EU reliance to a US-centric trade strategy, it could gain a competitive edge over European rivals facing steeper tariffs.
Brazil
Brazil, with a 10% tariff, might also benefit if it capitalizes on its agricultural exports like soybeans and beef, which face less direct competition from US producers. Its $35 billion trade with the US could grow if it positions itself as a reliable partner amid disruptions elsewhere. Strategic diplomacy could see Brazil emerge as a winner in the Western Hemisphere.
Losers
China
China is the policy’s biggest loser, slapped with a 54% total tariff (34% new plus 20% existing) on its $439 billion in US exports. From electronics to apparel, Chinese goods will become prohibitively expensive, threatening a market that accounts for 17% of its total exports. Beijing has vowed retaliation—potentially targeting US agricultural giants like ADM and Cargill—raising the specter of a renewed trade war. With its economy already strained by a property crisis, China faces a steep economic hit, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 1.5% GDP growth drop in 2025 if tariffs persist.
European Union
The EU, facing a 20% tariff on its $576 billion in exports to the US, is another major casualty. Germany’s auto industry (BMW, Volkswagen) and France’s luxury goods sector (LVMH) will see costs soar, eroding competitiveness. EU chief Ursula von der Leyen called it a "major blow," and retaliatory measures—like duties on US whiskey and Harley-Davidson—are under discussion. With intra-EU divisions hampering a unified response, the bloc risks losing significant market share, especially if U.S. allies like the UK negotiate better deals.
Japan
Japan’s 24% tariff threatens its $142 billion export market, dominated by autos and machinery. Toyota and Honda, which rely on US sales for 30% of their global revenue, face a double hit: higher import costs and potential consumer backlash. Tokyo has protested, but its limited leverage—given US security ties—may force compliance or costly production shifts. Analysts predict a 0.8% GDP decline if exports drop as expected.
Southeast Asian nations
Smaller Asean economies like Cambodia (49%), Vietnam (46%), and Laos (48%) are among the hardest hit. These countries, key players in apparel and electronics supply chains, export $12 billion, $112 billion, and $1.5 billion respectively to the US. The steep tariffs could devastate their export-driven growth, with Cambodia’s garment sector—90% of its exports—facing collapse. Vietnam, a recent beneficiary of China’s trade woes, may see its diversification gains reversed, while Laos lacks the clout to negotiate relief.
Taiwan
Taiwan’s 32% tariff imperils its $95 billion export market, particularly semiconductors. As home to TSMC, the world’s top chipmaker, Taiwan supplies 92% of advanced US chips. While semiconductors dodged direct tariffs for now, the broader levy raises costs for downstream products, risking supply chain chaos. Escalating US-China tensions could further isolate Taiwan, making it a geopolitical and economic loser.
Broader implications for countries
Strategic winners
Countries that win will likely do so through agility and diplomacy. India and the UK could exploit their non-aligned or pro-US stances to secure exemptions, while Mexico and Canada might lean on regional ties. These nations could see export growth or stability if they pivot supply chains to meet US demands, potentially reshaping global trade alliances. Brazil’s agricultural leverage could similarly elevate its status in the Americas.
Economic losers
The losers—China, the EU, Japan, and Southeast Asia—face immediate export declines and long-term uncertainty. Retaliation risks a global trade war, with the World Trade Organization estimating a 2.5% drop in world trade volume by 2026 if escalation continues. Smaller nations like Cambodia and Laos may struggle to recover, while giants like China and the EU could see domestic unrest if economic pain deepens. Taiwan’s semiconductor role adds a strategic layer, potentially destabilizing tech markets worldwide.
Penguin in the crosshairs
Trump has never said whether he prefers Marvel or DC, but based on his upbringing, one would assume his favourite caped crusader is Batman — a super rich man who gets his jollies beating up weird criminals. And Trump appears to share Bruce Wayne’s disdain for the Penguin, judging by his Liberation Day announcements, where he declared that he would be imposing 10% tariffs on the denizens of Heard Island and McDonald Islands — an uninhabited extension of Australia, home mostly to penguins and seals. This led to a host of penguin-themed jokes, often coupled with memes from the Madagascar franchise. Perhaps Donald thought that “McDonald” was a reference to his favourite fast-food franchise. Either way, it’s evident that no one — man, beast, nor bird — is safe from MAGA’s massive “reciprocal tariffs.”
(With inputs from agencies)
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