Pahalgam carnage exposes Pakistan's calculated diplomacy-terror nexus

On April 22, 2025, terrorists struck a tourist hotspot near Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir, killing 28 people in the deadliest attack since the 2019 Pulwama bombing. The Resistance Front (TRF)-a Lashkar-e-Taiba proxy backed by Pakistan’s military-intelligence apparatus-claimed responsibility. Intelligence sources have linked it to Pakistan's growing strategic posturing, including army chief general Asim Munir’s incendiary speech just days earlier.

Setting the context
The assault unfolded during US Vice President JD Vance’s India visit and amid Pakistan’s aggressive campaign to woo American investment in its $8 trillion untapped mineral reserves.

Driving the news: When kalma stands between life & death

• Survivors described chilling scenes: Terrorists in army fatigues demanded victims recite Islamic verses to prove their faith before opening fire with American-made M4 rifles.
• Survival through scripture: Silchar professor Debasish Bhattacharya, a Hindu, escaped death in the Pahalgam terror attack by reciting the kalma when a terrorist pointed a rifle at him and demanded proof of Islamic faith. His wife removed her sindoor and shakha-pola to appear non-Hindu.
• Religious identity as a death sentence: Christian tourist Sushil Nathaniel was killed in front of his wife Jennifer after he told the gunmen he didn’t know the kalma. “They pointed a gun at my husband and told him to recite the kalma… Then one of them pushed him and shot him in the chest,” she said.
• Florida-based techie gunned down: Bitan Adhikary, visiting Kashmir with his family, was shot dead after failing to recite the kalma. His wife Sohini recounted: “That is when the man shot him. He fell on the grass. I just sat there next to him clutching my son, watching him die in front of my eyes.”
• A calculated, chilling method: Survivors say attackers operated methodically, singling out Hindus and non-Muslims. The brutality of forcing religious litmus tests at gunpoint adds a disturbing layer to an already horrific massacre.

Why it matters
The timing of the Pahalgam attack-during Vance's visit and PM Modi’s trip to Saudi Arabia-suggests a coordinated bid by Pakistan to internationalize the Kashmir conflict and assert its geopolitical relevance.

Next, the attack comes in the backdrop of Pakistan's economic overtures to the US, centered around critical minerals like lithium.

The use of US-made M4 rifles, likely diverted from Taliban caches post-Afghanistan withdrawal, underscores the unintended consequences of abandoned US and Western weaponry and signals a dangerous shift in terrorist capabilities.

The big picture
Pakistan’s actions appear to reflect a dual-track strategy:

Economic diplomacy through minerals: Islamabad hosted a US minerals forum in early April, attended by senior US state department officials and congressional leaders like Rep Jack Bergman. The pitch: Pakistan's mineral wealth could help the US secure supply chains disrupted by China’s rare-earth export suspension, a Foreign Policy report said.

Ideological escalation and proxy violence: Just days before the Pahalgam massacre, General Munir described Kashmir as Pakistan’s “jugular vein” and reaffirmed the two-nation theory. Analysts say his remarks served as a “dog whistle” to jihadist outfits, echoing calls for “jihad and bloodshed” made by LeT commanders like Abu Musa in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

Pakistan seems to be betting that strategic mineral cooperation with the US will act as a geopolitical buffer, diluting American criticism of its continued backing of terrorist proxies like LeT.

What they’re saying
“Our forefathers thought we are different from Hindus in every possible aspect... that was the foundation of the two-nation theory,” Munir said, addressing overseas Pakistanis just six days before the attack. “It was our jugular vein. It will be our jugular vein.”

“President Donald Trump... strongly condemned the terror attack and expressed full support to India to bring to justice the perpetrators of this heinous attack,” India’s foreign ministry said after Trump’s call to PM Modi.

Between the lines
The Pahalgam attack’s signature was chillingly deliberate. The tactic used to identify non-Muslims is a throwback to some of Kashmir’s darkest militant episodes and appears aimed at sparking communal unrest across India.

The involvement of M4 rifles, traced to Taliban stockpiles, affirms Washington Post and BBC reports about Pakistani militants obtaining US weaponry left behind in Afghanistan. Terror outfits like LeT and even the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) are now equipped with advanced combat gear.

The attack coincided with a strategic silence from Pakistan’s civilian leadership, raising eyebrows in New Delhi. While PM Shehbaz Sharif welcomed US investors and praised bilateral cooperation on minerals, the military under Munir appeared to signal its unchanged posture on Kashmir-through both rhetoric and action.

Zoom in

• Pakistan’s mineral ambitions aren’t new. But the urgency is. Facing an economic crisis, ballooning debt, and IMF dependency, Islamabad has recalibrated its outreach, positioning itself as a future supplier of critical minerals.
• This aligns neatly with Washington’s post-Afghanistan pivot and its urgent search for alternatives to China’s dominance in rare earths. The Biden administration’s interest in lithium and cobalt now has an institutional home in the Trump administration's critical minerals policy. Hence, the sudden American enthusiasm.
• Pakistan’s self-claimed reserves span over 230,000 square miles, rich in gold, copper, and lithium. With China pausing rare-earth exports, Pakistan’s mineral pitch is timely for the US. But Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa-home to most of these resources-are also terror epicenters, with over 95% of Pakistan’s 2024 terror attacks recorded there, according to the report in Foreign Policy.
• Security risks abound: The BLA’s rise and past failures to protect Chinese infrastructure in Pakistan fuel skepticism about Islamabad’s ability to safeguard US investments. Any mineral project would be surrounded by hostile terrain and insurgent threats.
• Munir’s internal challenges: Facing backlash for mishandling Baloch and TTP violence, Pakistan’s army chief may be using Kashmir to deflect domestic criticism. His rhetoric and the military’s apparent orchestration of the Pahalgam attack fit a pattern of redirecting public attention through external escalation.

What’s next

• India’s diplomatic response has been sweeping: suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty until Pakistan ends support for cross-border terrorism.
• The Attari-Wagah border closed, cutting off key land access.
• Pakistani military advisers expelled; diplomatic staff at both high commissions reduced from 55 to 30.
• SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme cancelled for Pakistani nationals; those in India given 48 hours to leave.
• India warned that further actions, including military options, remain on the table.

(With inputs from agencies)